Navigating Global Shifts from BRICS to Trumpism and the New World Order
By Žikica Milošević
And just like that, Donald Trump won again, this time convincingly. This time, he is no longer an underdog but has the entire Trumpism movement behind him, along with his successor, a young intellectual. And just like that, a BRICS summit was held in Kazan, giving momentum to an organisation shaken by Argentina’s refusal to join and Saudi Arabia’s hesitation. And just like that, China and India reconciled over their border dispute. And just like that, the German government fell – and the entire country became a victim of geopolitics.
BRICS + Straight Outta Kazan
Kazan Means the Same in Serbian, Tatar, and Russian – “Cauldron”. In this “cauldron”, Putin hosted the BRICS+ summit, a deliberate signal that BRICS+ is a synthesis of the West and the East. This symbolism is reflected in Kazan’s population, roughly equal to Russians and Tatars, Orthodox Christians, and Muslims. The members of this club are highly diverse, united by a shared aspiration for a new system—not an “anti-Western system” but simply a “non-Western system.”
While some members aim to dethrone America’s global leadership (Russia, Iran), others are building a counterweight to Western economies and politics (China). Still, others position themselves lucratively in a “middle ground.” These nations recognise that the future lies in Asia and Africa and aim to maintain excellent relations with the West, capitalising on “alternative globalisation” (India, UAE).
One of the main tools to achieve these goals is de-dollarisation and bypassing SWIFT. Is it working? Partially. Cross-border banking claims denominated in USD among member states have reduced from 66% in 2020 to 55% in 2024. The share of international debt securities in dollars also dropped from 83% to 75% during the same period. External debts denominated in USD fell sharply from 59% in 2012 to 46% in 2024.
The BRICS Clear mechanism shows promise in replacing SWIFT and bypassing restrictions and sanctions. It facilitates clearing between countries that wish to avoid using the US dollar as the settlement currency, akin to SWIFT. As Goran Nikolić astutely analyses, the “Clear System,” with the BRICS accounting unit (dubbed Stablecoin) managed by the NDB, elegantly addresses the main challenge. It integrates bilateral trade among BRICS+ members into a unified and cohesive financial system for multilateral trade.
The BRICS Stablecoin is a sophisticated digital solution for tracking international trade. Transactions are converted not into dollars but into a digital unit pegged to gold or a weighted basket of BRICS currencies, with no privileged settlement currency. Countries trading through this system bypass the dollar and Western banks as intermediaries. Payments are settled in local currencies, avoiding the creation of a new currency like the euro, bypassing supranational banks, and operating outside the watchful eyes of SWIFT and Western institutions. The system is both practical and innovative.
Questions remain about Saudi Arabia’s potential full membership, the number of BRICS partners, and how nations like Türkiye and Kazakhstan will balance their positions. What will happen with Algeria and other aspirants? These developments will unfold over time in this fast-changing world.
Behind the scenes, however, one significant development is the occurrence of another “great reconciliation” not mediated by Western powers. While Trump and his allies significantly eased Middle East tensions through the Abraham Accords, China brokered reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Now, Russia has mediated the resolution of border tensions between China and India—a historic achievement.
For BRICS and the non-Western world to genuinely create a viable alternative to the West, China and India must reconcile and work in the same direction. When that happens, the world could change profoundly. These steps, though significant, are still insufficient, but they are steps in the right direction.
The times have changed, and the old German model is no longer viable. Germany could become the first major casualty of the Brave New World
Germany As The Victim of a New World
From the outset, it was clear that forming the “Traffic Light Coalition” would be no easy task, but no coalition has been more ill-fated than this one. Almost immediately after its formation, chaos ensued: the disruption of Russian gas supplies via sabotage of Nord Stream, the invasion and war in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia, and American pressure on Western allies to distance themselves from China. The core elements that once strengthened Germany’s economy—cheap Russian energy, a robust industrial base, and access to the Chinese market—have crumbled. Today, economic growth is negligible, energy is expensive, industry is in crisis, and China’s market is increasingly closed and self-sufficient. Germany’s auto industry faces significant challenges, with some predicting Volkswagen could suffer the same fate as Kodak.
While the Greens, particularly Annalena Baerbock, have been the most visible in destabilising the coalition’s balance, it was Christian Lindner of the Liberals (yellow) who ultimately pulled the rug from under it. He issued an 18-page ultimatum, demanding that the €12 billion budget shortfall not be addressed by lifting the “debt brake” (an idea proposed by the Social Democrats, or red) but by cutting social benefits (unacceptable to the SPD) and green transition funding (unacceptable to the Greens). Further, his pro-business stance called for corporate tax reductions to boost German companies’ competitiveness in the absence of Russian gas and Chinese markets. These three conflicting positions miraculously held together for three years, in retrospect.
The coalition’s fate was effectively sealed a year ago by the Constitutional Court, which ruled that €60 billion “leftover” from the COVID-19 budget could not be redirected to other projects. With those funds, 400,000 budgeted apartments could have been built, pensions and social benefits increased, and the green transition supported—all while keeping the budget balanced enough to satisfy the Liberals. Instead, the budget hole remained, and the additional aid cost to Ukraine exacerbated the situation. Lindner hopes brought down the coalition, paving the way for a new coalition after elections on 23 February, ideally with the CDU-CSU as more suitable allies for his agenda.
However, given their support for even more significant aid to Ukraine and the fact that China’s superior technology is rapidly capturing the electric vehicle market (and possibly others), At the same time, German companies relocating to the US, it is uncertain whether Germany will fare any better under a new government. The times have changed, and the German model is no longer viable. With Trump likely to escalate tensions with China further, unless a new Schröder emerges to say “Nein!” as in 2003 with Iraq, or a new Merkel arises to balance priorities skilfully, Germany could become the first major casualty of the Brave New World. This would likely be exploited by Sarah Wagenknecht and the AfD in upcoming elections, creating even greater turmoil.
Meanwhile, the same happened to France. It means that the EU has lost two of the most important member states’ governments in just a few weeks. France was also left without the next year’s budget. These two nations, after all, are Europe’s two strongest economies.
Trump’s Shifting of Balance
Even before assuming power, Trump has shifted many global balances. His “Trifecta”—holding the presidency, the House, and Congress—represents a position of unparalleled power for the next two years. The German government fell the day after the US elections. With a likely hardline stance towards China and Europe (as well as Canada and Mexico) and potential warming towards Russia, the world in 2025 looks significantly transformed.
With its massive state investments in renewable energy, China has become a global leader in producing electric vehicles and solar panels. Once the world’s largest polluter, China is on track to “win” the green transition. Moreover, it is preparing to dominate the next frontier—green hydrogen. These changes are occurring so rapidly that other nations scarcely notice. Simultaneously, China’s heavy funding of chip research brings it closer to self-sufficiency, rendering US sanctions increasingly irrelevant. Countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, pressured by the US to forgo collaboration with China to prevent technological leakage, may soon be free of such conditions. The wave of innovation China drives is poised to become a new global force by 2030.
Elon Musk’s vision for America’s progress differs greatly from China’s. His vision might soon become a reality, but China’s approach seems more “down-to-earth,” understandable, and globally acceptable. For now. By next December, we may be speaking about something entirely entirely different in the emerging New World
On the other hand, many nations will have to reconsider their alignments. Countries benefiting from “the best of both worlds,” such as Vietnam or Mexico, might be pushed closer to China under Trump’s policies. There are indications that Trump’s return to power could strengthen America, weaken Europe, and grant China dominance over more than half the world. This trend was apparent even during Democratic administrations but is now accelerating.
The emerging world of trade wars, barriers, and divergent standards is upon us. Elon Musk envisions a future for America vastly different from China’s path. While Musk’s vision might soon materialise, China’s approach appears more grounded and globally appealing. By next December, we might find ourselves speaking about an entirely different reality in this New World rapidly taking shape.
